Harris overtakes Trump in three important states

Twelve weeks to go…

This morning’s New York Times presents Times/Siena poll numbers from August 5-9 indicating that Kamala Harris is four percentage points ahead of Donald Trump in three of the most important battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

This is a huge shift. Throughout the year leading up to President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Joe Biden was at best equal to, but more often slightly behind, Donald Trump.

In the other four states (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina) that make up the crucial seven swing states – PBS NewsHour says three have moved from the Trump column to “Tossup.” Newsweek reports that in the seven swing states taken together, Harris leads Trump 42% to 40%.

Harris has hard work to do to consolidate this.  For one thing, the margin of error in the New York Times poll is just over 4%.  In addition, voters have made it clear they still trust Donald Trump more to handle matters of the economy and immigration.

Meantime, Harris took a mere 18 days to choose a running mate, drawing her followers into the suspense and debate created by the “short list,” then choosing the least-nationally-known of her six finalists. 

Tim Walz brings both a down-home, ordinary-guy aura that might soften the edges of the elitist tone of the Democratic party, while also bringing a further left political position than the other contenders.  His capacity to help Harris appeal to the undecided center thus might be a mixed bag.  As far as the optics were concerned, I had hoped for Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who is in his forties and projects high competence along with youthfulness. But Beshear also has the elitist credentials that, on the long term, Democrats need to offset. The Democratic Party needs to retrieve its identification with ordinary white folks of the middle class, and Walz could help with that.

The standard belief about the V-P pick is that it doesn’t make any difference to the race.  But nothing is standard about this particular race, with Harris, a woman of Jamaican and South Asian parentage, emerging late as the Democratic candidate, and spearheading a rapid turnaround in the emotional tone of the national political scene.

Harris, apparently, chose the man she felt most comfortable working with. Some fear that he is too nice and somewhat lackluster.  It is too soon to know. Harris-Walz are attempting to define a new “normal,” says the Economist (https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/07/the-wisdom-in-calling-donald-trump-weird), and Tim Walz comes across as quintessentially normal. In this new “normal,” Donald Trump is not to be interpreted as having coherence, and instead is dubbed as downright “weird.”

Laughter is a continuing theme in the Harris-Walz camp.  Walz thanked Harris for “bringing back the joy!” in their first rally. Harris’s sense of humor is all over this campaign. 

The elation of these new developments is still in the air, even if we hear frequent references to the inevitable end of the “honeymoon.”  A legitimate criticism coming at her from both the right and the left just now is that we haven’t heard her in a press conference or a one-on-one interview.  Does she have what it takes to speak extemporaneously in those situations and present herself and her vision eloquently?

Of course, Harris’s big opportunity to present herself and her running mate to the nation will occur during the week of the Democratic Party’s convention in Chicago, starting August 19. This gives her a perfect staging ground to define herself and her campaign.  Two weeks from now, we will know a good deal more about her.

I ‘m no political strategist, but I do have the wellbeing of this country at heart. I hope that Harris-Walz find ways to state their understanding, and at some level respect, for how those tilting to the right see the issues.  Harris-Walz will stand for what they believe, but it helps lower the tone of animosity in the country as a whole if you can acknowledge legitimate concerns that your opponents express. After all, Harris and Walz speak frequently of their belief that their party has room for everyone. In my view, concerns on the right about abortion and illegal immigration having become too easy, and inflation too high, are not “weird” views. If Harris-Walz can acknowledge this, they might be able to contribute to a new discourse to displace the constant discounting of the other that has come to define our politics.